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Alex E
Alex E
Options expiry data for May 29 is in, and it tells a clear story about where the market stands right now. 84,000 BTC options expired, with a put-call ratio of 0.88, a max pain point at 75,000 USD, and a notional value of 6.2 billion USD. 639,000 ETH options expired, with a put-call ratio of 0.81, a max pain point at 2,200 USD, and a notional value of 1.28 billion USD. This week, Bitcoin quickly dropped below 75,000 USD. Both BTC and ETH saw massive options expiry, but due to the sharp decline, the market failed to find support at the max pain levels. Weak conditions further dampened already low attention. Only 20% of expiring options were for this month, and post-expiry, the focus shifted heavily to June, which now accounts for 40% of total open interest. Long positions couldn't reclaim key levels before expiry, struggling to find support at major GEX price zones. Risk appetite continued to shrink this week, with altcoins and ETH beta names feeling the most pressure. Without a fresh catalyst, short-term IV is likely to decline after expiry. Looking at the core options data, the PCR for BTC and ETH stands at 0.88 and 0.81 — these numbers don't signal extreme bearishness. The market wasn't heavily betting on a one-way crash; sentiment was more neutral with a slight defensive tilt. Volatility skew remained stable, with most activity reflecting unwinding of previously accumulated positions. While IV for key expiries recovered slightly, it stayed below 35% across the board, reaching a point where further declines seem unlikely. The next market focus is whether capital flows will return, and if BTC can reclaim 75,000 USD while ETH retakes 2,100 USD. This settlement feels less like a bullish breakout and more like a bearish position release — large positions have expired. The fact that both BTC and ETH are trading below key resistance levels suggests the dominant force this week wasn't chasing upside, but risk-off behavior and long position unwinding. Bullish sent...

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