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The Week That Broke the Bull Thesis — A Wall Street Recap
22 years on the desk. One of the most consequential weeks I’ve seen. Three storylines defined it.
1. #RateHikeBackOnTable — Death of the Pivot Trade
30-year yields hit 5.20%, highest since 2007. Timiraos confirmed cut talk dead. 80%+ odds of hikes priced in.
Warsh takes over with hawkish history. Long-pivot trades vaporized.
Hit: $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $NVDA, $QCOM, $SOXL, $SPACEX
Winners: $USDT, $USDC, $USDG, $XAUT
2. #SpaceXHolds18KBTC — Corporate BTC Goes Vertical
S-1 dropped. $1.75T-$2T June 11 IPO. Bombshell: 18,712 BTC ($1.29B) on balance sheet.
Saylor’s playbook validated at $2T scale. Every Fortune 500 CFO has new agenda item.
Winners: $BTC, $STX, $BABY, $WBTC, $SPACEX (+7%), $NVDA, $CSCO
3. #AnthropicComputeRace — The AI Empire
$200B+ compute contracts locked across NVIDIA, Google TPU, AWS Trainium, Microsoft Maia, Fluidstack. Five chips. Zero single points of failure.
Centralized scarcity = decentralized demand.
Winners: $TAO, $RENDER, $AKT, $FET, $ANTHROPIC, $NVDA, $MSFT
Other Stories
#HYPEShortSqueeze — $HYPE ATH, a16z whale up $33M, retail shorts wiped
#CFTCDefendsPredMarkets — Federal preemption. $LINK, $ETH benefit
#StocksGoOnChain — SEC exemption coming. $ONDO, $PROS positioned
#TrillionDollarIPOs — $SPACEX + OpenAI = $2.75T entering markets
#OKXPizzaDay — 16 years since Laszlo. $BTC at $80K vs $0.003 in 2010
Macro Picture
Stagflation cooking. Bond market screaming. Fed hawkish. AI compute consolidating. Trillion-dollar IPOs incoming.
HYPE, $JUP, $AAVE).
The Brutal Truth
Smart money moved this week. Harvard exited $ETH. Goldman cut crypto 70%. Saylor paused $BTC buys.
They saw bond yields. Bonds are smarter than crypto traders.
Bottom Line
This week killed “Fed cuts inevitable.” Validated corporate BTC. Crowned Anthropic AI compute king.
Three structural shifts in five days. Market hasn’t fully priced any.
Next week: $NVDA earnings May 20. SpaceX roadshow positioning.
Reduce leverage. Keep stables ready. Watch bonds.
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