币毒

When the price rises, I don't dare to short; when it falls, I don't dare to buy. Standing on the sidelines watching, I remain just a bystander.

Good morning, let's start today's market summary: The overall market is cooling down, but the narrative is still alive. BTC is currently around $74,441, down 1.95% in 24 hours; ETH is $2,024, down 2.62%. BNB is $647, SOL is $82.6, with mainstream coins generally pulling back. According to CoinGecko data, the total market cap is about $2.58 trillion, down 1.78% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of approximately $91.48 billion, indicating that funds are not fleeing in panic, but the willingness to chase highs has clearly weakened. The news side is actually quite interesting. Block's Cash App has started rolling out USDC payments in batches. This product, with nearly 60 million users, is using stablecoins as a payment rail, sending a very direct signal: stablecoins are gradually evolving from crypto tools into mainstream internet financial infrastructure. Additionally, Jefferies gave a strong forecast after the New York Digital Asset Investor Conference: there will be another wave of crypto-related IPOs in the next two years, and within five years, the public market size of this sector could reach $1 trillion. Although the market has been adjusting recently, traditional finance is increasingly focusing not on "whether coins are rising," but on on-chain settlement, tokenization, payments, and real revenue models. One more medium-to-long-term point: BIS-led Project Agorá believes tokenization can significantly improve the efficiency and security of cross-border payments and is already preparing to move towards real money testing. Simply put, what was once considered blockchain storytelling is now increasingly like the global financial system seriously conducting stress tests. So my personal feeling is: don't get too excited in the short term, the pullback isn't fully over yet; but the mid-term narrative is actually continuing to strengthen, especially in stablecoins, payments, RWA, trading, and settlement infrastructure, which are worth keeping an eye on.

There isn't much time left for $HYPE holders. It's hard to imagine this position really challenging $BNB. The buying power at this market cap is nearly exhausted, and in the short term, only sell orders are looking for opportunities.

Good morning, the market this morning is still relatively volatile. BTC is currently at $75,848, down 1.6% in 24h; ETH at $2,075, down 1.4%; BNB at $656, SOL at $83.8. The total market cap is about $2.62 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume rising to $99.2 billion. Volume is increasing, but prices haven't followed, indicating funds are still engaged in short-term trading and rotation. Today, I’m focusing on three news items. First, Trump publicly endorsed market predictions, emphasizing that the CFTC should continue to control this regulatory area, which is a relatively positive policy expectation for the crypto derivatives sector. Second, the UK has added Huobi and a ruble stablecoin issuer to its sanctions list, showing that European compliance is clearly tightening, and trading platforms will continue to face pressure. Third, Coinbase’s Base launched the MCP tool that allows ChatGPT to directly manage wallets and DeFi, pushing the AI + Crypto integration forward another step. Sentiment is not panicked, and volume hasn’t collapsed, so I prefer to see this as a high-level consolidation rather than rushing to turn bearish. As long as BTC doesn’t continuously fall below 75,000, mainline funds will likely continue to revolve around BTC, ETH, and on-chain assets with application narratives. Today, don’t rush to chase sentiment coins; first, see if the mainstream can hold the retracement.

I have a buddy in my group who is truly unbeatable... From the first time I went to his company, to later going hiking together. From 2023 to 2026, his contrarian moves really impress me. Every altcoin started to get caught in the net because of his chasing longs, and every mainstream coin hit ATHs because of his shorts. His contrarian power is the Pro Max I've ever seen. In 2023, he shorted $BTC at 16140; in 2024, he went long $STRK at 1.89; in 2026, he went long $ASTER at 0.76. Over all these years, every single trade, every single position, has been perfectly executed and convincing to me. Today, he posted a long position on $HYPE again, and this coin is basically done for.

The era of Ethereum is over. I have made countless statements about this before, but it doesn't change the fact that Ethereum still has one last positive catalyst. After that catalyst passes, Ethereum will be calm and quietly fade away, leaving people with only memories of what once was. Grandpa: Did you really buy Ethereum at $4900? Does anyone know what the final positive catalyst is? $ETH

Checking the market this morning, BTC is still hovering around $76,700, ETH at 2096, and SOL around 84. The total market capitalization is about $2.64 trillion, with BTC holding a 58.2% market share. The market isn't panicking, but volume is slightly weaker than yesterday. Major coins are generally in a consolidation phase with minor pullbacks. On the news front, Vitalik sent a pretty clear signal: the Ethereum Foundation will continue to slim down and sell less ETH, refocusing on research and critical infrastructure. This is a positive factor for ETH's mid-term narrative, but short-term funds clearly haven't fully bought into it yet. Another stronger theme remains high-elasticity topics. CoinDesk mentioned that HYPE-related funds are attracting capital, while BTC and ETH ETFs are seeing outflows; NEAR continues to strengthen due to active cross-chain products. The current market style is straightforward: large caps stabilize first, while small caps and strong narratives rotate in performance. This week, we need to watch US PCE, initial jobless claims, and housing data. As long as macro conditions don't worsen, there is room for altcoin recovery; but if data is strong, a pullback after a rally is still a risk. My personal feeling is that index positions can be held, short-term positions shouldn't be chased recklessly, and patience is needed to wait for divergence.

Every time Aster pumps a bit, a bunch of people want to short it, all hoping $ASTER dies. Of course, Aster itself has never disappointed, but I want to say, brothers, what if it doesn't? Then you’d just be out.

Morning market overview conclusion: The market is still in a relatively strong consolidation. BTC is currently around $77,000, with a slight increase in the past 24 hours; ETH is just above $2100, with a minor pullback; BNB remains stable, and SOL is still consolidating. According to CoinGecko data, the total market cap is about $2.65 trillion, with BTC dominance close to 58.3%, indicating that capital is clearly clustering around the leading coin. No need to overcomplicate the news today; the main theme remains "institutions and regulation." Some noteworthy points from CoinDesk this morning: Coinbase management publicly stated they are not afraid of Wall Street entering the market and continue to call for clearer regulatory frameworks; additionally, discussions about the Federal Reserve and crypto regulation are still progressing, showing that the biggest concern for large capital remains unchanged—first rules, then full-scale expansion. There is another point I think the market tends to overlook: stablecoins and on-chain payments are gradually becoming the default settlement layer for AI scenarios. This narrative hasn't fully impacted prices yet, but if it continues to develop, it will have more sustainability than just hype. So my understanding today is simple: the overall index trend is not bad, BTC remains the anchor, and altcoins wanting independent big moves still need to watch capital sentiment. At this stage, don’t get overly excited chasing gains; hold the strong ones and don’t fantasize too much about the weak ones.

This morning I took a look around, and the market sentiment is a bit more stable than yesterday. BTC has returned to around $76,741, up 1.8% in 24h; ETH is at 2116, up 2.4% in 24h; SOL at 85.8, BNB at 655.8. The total market cap has returned to $2.65 trillion, with the market up about 1.8% in 24h. BTC market dominance is 58.1%, and funds are still clearly favoring main chain assets. On the news front, last night's BTC rebound is somewhat related to a warming risk appetite. CoinDesk mentioned that Trump said the US-Iran peace agreement is "basically settled," so the market initially traded on easing geopolitical risks, which helped Bitcoin climb. But don’t get too carried away with this rally. On the other hand, the US spot BTC ETF has seen a net outflow of $2.26 billion over the past two weeks, indicating that mid-term funds haven’t fully turned bullish. The current position looks more like a rebound confirmation rather than a reckless acceleration. Altcoins are starting to heat up again. NEAR surged nearly 15% in a single day, and high-volatility assets like PENGU, AI-related projects, and Hyperliquid are drawing attention again. My simple feeling is: the big coin needs to stabilize first for altcoins to have the qualification to continue performing; if BTC turns down again, the fast-rising altcoins will also fall quickly. Today, let’s first see if 76,000 can hold. If it holds, the market will continue moving towards "mainstream catch-up + rotation of popular themes"; if it doesn’t hold, it will still be about seizing rhythm within the volatility.