Phyrex.Ni
Phyrex.Ni
No extravagance, no waste
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Besent stated that the US has seized $1 billion worth of crypto assets from Iran.
Primarily USDT, but the overall operation also involves a small amount of other cryptocurrencies, as well as funds transferred through UK-registered exchanges and other channels. Iran often quickly transfers oil sales revenue and other funds via USDT.
Two USDT wallets on the Tron chain have been publicly named, totaling about $344 million.
If the US fully appropriates these assets, according to Trump's statement, bitcoin:native should not be sold, while other assets might be retained or sold and converted into Bitcoin.
Phyrex.Ni
Senate Banking Committee Chairman @SenatorTimScott agrees with @USTreasury and @SecScottBessent that it's time for the U.S. to become the global capital of cryptocurrency.
This is exactly why he is advancing the Clarity Act through a bipartisan committee review process, aiming to provide clear regulatory rules and bring crypto innovation back to the U.S. homeland.
Although Bitcoin is still declining, mass holding is underway
From the latest bitcoin:native holding distribution data, it can be seen that holdings by high-net-worth investors and small-scale investors are both increasing. Although part of the increase among high-net-worth investors is indeed due to exchange inventory growth, it is clear that small-scale investors continue to buy despite the price drop.
This indicates that even with Bitcoin's current price decline, most investors still have expectations for #BTC's future, especially with the increase in holdings by small-scale investors, showing that some funds behave more like ordinary investors.
From the chart, it can be seen that holdings by small-scale investors with less than 10 Bitcoins have actually rebounded significantly after the price drop, indicating that many retail investors did not exit during the decline but rather took the price pullback as an opportunity to continue accumulating BTC.
This is why I say mass holding is underway. The market may appear weak on the surface now, with BTC falling from its highs and not yet recovering strongly, but the on-chain holding structure is actually improving. Large funds are increasing, small funds are increasing, long-term holders are increasing, but short-term exchange inventory is also rising, so the price is temporarily suppressed by selling pressure and risk-off sentiment.
The core reason for this phenomenon, as mentioned before, is that short-term funds focus on the US-Iran conflict, dollar liquidity, US stock risk appetite, and macro uncertainty. So when price rebounds are weak, some BTC is transferred to exchanges to prepare for selling or hedging.
Long-term funds, however, focus on Bitcoin's supply scarcity, continuous ETF absorption, institutional allocation, and future liquidity cycles. Therefore, the lower the price falls, the more willing they are to slowly increase their holdings.
#Bitget means VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
Phyrex.Ni
Bitcoin price fluctuates with the US-Iran war, showing a clear trend of polarization
There are only two days left until May ends. Last week, many friends said that this month we might see Bitcoin:native prices starting with six figures. I don't know if that will happen, but for me, it still depends on the direction of the US and Iran conflict. If an agreement can be sustained, it will help Bitcoin break out of its downturn.
According to the latest data, long-term Bitcoin holdings continue to increase. At this growth rate, it is very likely to surpass 15 million coins in June, which means nearly 75% of BTC is held by long-term holders.
However, some might question, if so much #Bitcoin is not circulating, why did BTC’s price slump after reaching $82,000, while the US stock market continues to rise?
This is a very realistic question, so I included exchange reserve data in the chart. Everyone can clearly see that since BTC broke its long-term holding record high, the total amount held long-term has increased by 80,000 coins.
From the lowest exchange reserves this year, about a month ago, to now, exchange reserves have increased by nearly 50,000 Bitcoin. The polarization is very severe, meaning that although more BTC has shifted to long-term holders, a significant portion has also moved to exchanges, ready to be sold or already sold.
The main reason for this situation is that long-term holders are not sensitive to price, often adopting a "the lower, the less they sell" approach, and have clear confidence in Bitcoin’s future. But this increase in long-term holdings does not represent increased buying power, while selling directly consumes market liquidity.
Especially in times of poor liquidity, BTC is more sensitive to US macro, political, and economic factors. The US stock market is indeed performing better, so it’s normal for some short-term investors to exit and move into US stocks.
So the current polarization essentially means long-term funds continue to lock in, while short-term funds are clearly defensive. Especially before the US-Iran conflict has a clear outcome, many funds, even if bullish on BTC long-term, will first transfer some positions to exchanges to maintain the ability to sell or hedge at any time.
Additionally, with US stocks currently supported by AI, tech giants, and buybacks, BTC lacks a new strong buying narrative. Therefore, for Bitcoin now, the key is still whether the war conflict can ease and whether US inflation shows signs of decline.
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By Friday, the war between the United States and Iran had lasted 90 days. During this period, the US announced at least three times that a ceasefire agreement was close to being reached, but it was always delayed. From the information released today, insiders hinted that the complete ceasefire agreement is close to being finalized. People inside and outside the White House say it’s about 95% done. Of course, even at 99%, there’s always a possibility of surprises before signing. Now we’re just waiting for the leaders of both sides to sign.
Moreover, the Iranian president reiterated his recent assurance that Iran is not seeking to develop nuclear weapons. This means there may be new progress on the most troublesome enriched uranium agreement between the US and Iran. Actually, these developments don’t interest ordinary investors much; the only thing everyone is looking forward to is when the Strait of Hormuz can be fully reopened.
Because once it reopens, it means the US can emerge from the current high inflation and recession expectations. The Federal Reserve would no longer have to worry about using interest rate hikes as a weapon. This would be very good news for the still-booming AI sector, and it would also be a strong boost for cryptocurrencies. Right now remains the best opportunity to short WTI.
Looking back at Bitcoin data, although the recent price of $BTC has been disappointing and many believe Bitcoin will likely return to the 40,000 or 50,000 range, BTC’s trend is still linked to US macro, political, and economic factors. Unless the US remains stuck in some trouble, after the US-Iran negotiations conclude, BTC is very likely to see a small rebound.
Of course, the key issue for BTC is still insufficient liquidity and lacking a strong narrative like AI. Compared to tech stocks, the gap is gradually widening. But BTC’s biggest advantage is that more holders are turning into long-term holders, and the number of high-net-worth holders is increasing.
#Bitget VIP is here! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
Phyrex.Ni
The peace talks between the US and Iran are still going through twists and turns, but judging from the price of WTI, the market now believes that the US will definitely handle the Strait of Hormuz issue. Not only WTI, even Brent is falling sharply. Currently, the price difference between Brent and WTI is less than $3.5. Oil prices represent market confidence, and lowering oil prices can help reduce global inflation.
Moreover, according to data from forecasting websites, the market's probability of a US economic recession this year has significantly decreased. Investors have also started to expect that the end of the US-Iran war will ease US inflation and pull the US out of recession fears. After all, in reality, the US has indeed become tougher after the ceasefire.
The current strategy remains to continue shorting WTI at high levels, which is straightforward. At this stage, watch for $85 first, then see if there will be further fluctuations. I think it’s not easy to resolve the Iran issue all at once, but if the Strait of Hormuz is dealt with separately first, it should be much simpler. Solving the Hormuz issue is equivalent to solving the US’s biggest problem.
Iran itself is not much of an issue.
Looking back at Bitcoin data, recently the bearish sentiment on $BTC among friends continues to rise. The US stock market remains relatively strong. I estimate that Bitcoin will only catch its breath after the Hormuz or Iran issue is resolved. But indeed, data shows BTC investors are not panicking; currently, the main participants in turnover are short-term investors.
Of course, due to liquidity reasons, short-term investors are the main drivers of price volatility, but as long as most users are not involved in turnover and there are no new negative factors from the US, Bitcoin’s price can remain relatively stable.
#Bitget comes as VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
Senate Banking Committee Chairman @SenatorTimScott agrees with @USTreasury and @SecScottBessent that it's time for the U.S. to become the global capital of cryptocurrency.
This is exactly why he is advancing the Clarity Act through a bipartisan committee review process, aiming to provide clear regulatory rules and bring crypto innovation back to the U.S. homeland.
In April, the US CPI and PPI data were both higher than the previous values and expectations, but the market had a better understanding of the PCE data for April. Although the annual rate data released today were also higher than the previous values, they were within the expected range. However, compared to the increases in CPI and PPI, the rise in PCE data was not significant.
Even the monthly rate data were lower than the previous values. Both the core PCE monthly rate and the PCE monthly rate were lower than before. This is mainly because the weighting of PCE differs from CPI; shocks like energy, gasoline, and rent are more easily amplified in CPI.
CPI reflects out-of-pocket prices for urban consumers, while PCE covers total personal consumption expenditures, with weights adjusted according to changes in consumption behavior.
Simply put, if oil prices rise, CPI directly shows "gasoline prices rose a lot," while PCE also considers whether consumers have changed their actual consumption patterns, such as driving less, consuming less, or switching to cheaper alternatives. Therefore, the same price shock may have different weights in PCE.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve focuses most on the core PCE data, which is still acceptable, having only risen 0.1% compared to March. The market should temporarily breathe a slight sigh of relief.
#Bitget comes with VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
Phyrex.Ni
Yesterday, I just finished looking at the CPI data, and today the PPI data has come out. Of course, compared to the much more closely watched CPI, the PPI receives much less attention. But it's important to know that in the Fed's most important PCE data, both CPI and PPI are key leading indicators.
Today's PPI data also blew past expectations: the previous value was 4.3%, the market forecast was 4.9%, and the released data is 6%. The core PPI showed the same trend.
If CPI is the inflation indicator that the market looks at first, then PPI is the indicator of production costs and some service prices, while PCE is the core indicator the Fed uses for policy decisions.
So after reviewing the CPI, looking at the PPI gives a rough idea of the monthly PCE trend. And for the Fed right now, the PCE is one of the main references for deciding whether to cut interest rates or not.
"Obtaining a Dubai zero-tax status to avoid CRS" is purely misleading. Dubai has no capital gains tax, but CRS looks at "tax residency status," not whether you have an Emirates ID. If you are still a Chinese tax resident (owning property and/or having household registration), simply having a UAE student ID cannot change the CRS reporting target to UAE; it will still be reported to China.
财经真相
Let me give Chinese financial refugees a way out!
If you want to continue trading US stocks, you need an overseas ID and bank card, and the cost can't be too high. What to do?
Answer: Dubai English classes
Apply for a one-year formal English school in Dubai, and you can get a Dubai ID. With the ID, you unlock the following benefits:
Open a US Interactive Brokers account
Open a Dubai bank card
Obtain a tax-free Dubai status to avoid CRS
Learn English
Costs are lower than Hong Kong and Singapore (tuition and accommodation $10,000/year)
The peace talks between the US and Iran are still going through twists and turns, but judging from the price of WTI, the market now believes that the US will definitely handle the Strait of Hormuz issue. Not only WTI, even Brent is falling sharply. Currently, the price difference between Brent and WTI is less than $3.5. Oil prices represent market confidence, and lowering oil prices can help reduce global inflation.
Moreover, according to data from forecasting websites, the market's probability of a US economic recession this year has significantly decreased. Investors have also started to expect that the end of the US-Iran war will ease US inflation and pull the US out of recession fears. After all, in reality, the US has indeed become tougher after the ceasefire.
The current strategy remains to continue shorting WTI at high levels, which is straightforward. At this stage, watch for $85 first, then see if there will be further fluctuations. I think it’s not easy to resolve the Iran issue all at once, but if the Strait of Hormuz is dealt with separately first, it should be much simpler. Solving the Hormuz issue is equivalent to solving the US’s biggest problem.
Iran itself is not much of an issue.
Looking back at Bitcoin data, recently the bearish sentiment on $BTC among friends continues to rise. The US stock market remains relatively strong. I estimate that Bitcoin will only catch its breath after the Hormuz or Iran issue is resolved. But indeed, data shows BTC investors are not panicking; currently, the main participants in turnover are short-term investors.
Of course, due to liquidity reasons, short-term investors are the main drivers of price volatility, but as long as most users are not involved in turnover and there are no new negative factors from the US, Bitcoin’s price can remain relatively stable.
#Bitget comes as VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
Phyrex.Ni
This should be the third time. After the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, this is the third time the US and Iran have actually sat down to discuss a ceasefire agreement, and both sides believe there has been progress. However, it is also the third time that the deal fell apart at the most critical moment. This time it seems to be about the issue of enriched uranium, but judging from Trump's posts, Iran still has not given up control over the Strait of Hormuz, which is likely one of the reasons the agreement was not reached.
Today is the first day back after the holiday, and both the Nasdaq and S&P broke through record highs again during the session. Although there was some pullback at the close due to Trump's remarks, the US stock market's performance is really strong, especially with the Nasdaq breaking through 30,000 points, rising more than 30% in less than two months. Dollar-cost averaging into the index has been a great return.
The big surge in AI has made many investors less interested in the US-Iran geopolitical conflict, but if the conflict remains unresolved and oil prices stay above $90, it will have a significant impact on US inflation. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will tighten further, which is a risk that cannot be ignored, especially for bitcoin:native.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, although the recent two-day decline was influenced by the renewed US-Iran conflict, no issues with investor sentiment have been found. The turnover rate remains low, and most investors continue to stay relaxed. As I have always said, although bitcoin:native's gains can't keep up with the US stock market, as long as the US stock market maintains a good upward trend, Bitcoin won't do too badly.
#Bitget comes as VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
Unity of knowledge and action, continue shorting WTI, currently targeting $85 first, then we'll see.
The US and Iran may not succeed in peace talks all at once, so oil prices might still fluctuate, but the market already believes the Strait of Hormuz is an issue that must be resolved.
In the long term, prices could drop to $75 or even lower, but it will likely take some time.
This is the fourth wave of shorting.
