Lucky-小何

Charlie Munger's Wisdom. 1: The simplest example of balancing and harmonizing personal desires and outcomes is when a person achieves the desired result through their own efforts. When a boy wants to eat blueberries, he happily goes to pick them; when he is not full, the joy of eating blueberries outweighs the hardship of picking them. But once he is full, the desire to eat blueberries disappears; picking blueberries becomes a monotonous and tedious task. 2: Thoughtful investors will outperform irrational greedy investors. 3: Those who know how to endure setbacks without being frightened by misfortune are like lions; when faced with intimidation, they roar instead of fleeing like other timid people. 4: To make money in this game, patience and capital are required. 5: The human brain is a belief machine that often seeks patterned thinking; people's beliefs govern their daily perceptions and experiences. 6: After long evolution, humans develop strong feelings of insecurity and tension when facing uncertainty, so we tend to believe in soothing words that can relieve this tension. 7: We think we are investing, but in reality, we are speculating. 8: We must soberly face emotional and cognitive errors that may interfere with good investors, and constantly guard against psychological mistakes. 9: How we understand investing ultimately guides our investment decisions. If we consciously adopt cognitive thinking methods and always monitor the rigor of our thought processes, our investment returns will improve. 10: Humans find it difficult to control their mistakes, especially when some people are very stubborn and hold certain beliefs. To become a successful investor, we must be ready to reinterpret market phenomena; fortunately, philosophical knowledge makes our investment journey easier and wiser. 11: Solve confusion through thinking, form your own beliefs, and these beliefs eventually shape habits. 12: The ultimate function of thought is to form behavioral habits. To understand the meaning of thought, we simply analyze what habits thought can form. To understand the meaning of an event, we only need to see what habits are encompassed in that event. 13: The great role of belief lies in summarizing past facts and then leading new trends. Our beliefs are all man-made; these beliefs are conceptual languages humans use to record their observations of nature. Beliefs also become our experiential choices. 14: Become a good thinker. 15: Once we develop the habit of reading critically, we can decide whether the content we read is worth passing through our communication channels, which is extremely important for those of us engaged in investment and finance. 16: I believe in understanding those universally recognized best books rather than sitting idly dreaming of getting something for nothing. If you, like Darwin, maintain great patience and proceed step by step, you will not find it so difficult. You will be amazed at the gains you achieve, not only financially but also in other aspects if you do this. 17: As Buffett often says: Better a fuzzy right than a precise wrong. 18: Unfortunately, when it comes to money, people are not always able to remain rational or reasonable, and we also know subjective probabilities may contain many personal biases. 19: Smart card players wait until the count reaches a high number before placing larger bets. 20: How to think is more important than what to think. $BTC

When trading, there is always a feeling of being toyed with at someone else's fingertips. The price keeps rising when you don't buy, but after you buy, it falls and you cut losses, then it starts rising again. This is a common feeling for many people. Without good entry points, they dare to build positions all the way, which clearly shows a lack of a consistent trading system and rules; trading in the short term is a zero-sum game where everyone is a competitor. Reading Sun Tzu's Art of War gave me some insights: Li Mu's entire process of resisting the Xiongnu perfectly illustrates how to conduct warfare. At the border, he independently set up and managed the collection of taxes based on the actual situation, sending all the revenue to his own troops as funds for recuperation. Every day, he would slaughter a few cattle for the troops to use, training soldiers in horseback archery, carefully assigning many spies to the beacon towers to scout enemy movements, and providing soldiers with generous treatment. He also stipulated that if the Xiongnu invaded the border to plunder, everyone should immediately retreat to the camp for defense. If anyone dared to confront and capture a Xiongnu soldier, they would be executed without mercy. Clearly, Li Mu judged that the forces on all sides were seriously insufficient at the time, so only by holding firm and not taking the initiative could he maintain control. If he went out to meet the Xiongnu, he would lose the initiative and be sure to be defeated. Thus, Li Mu held the border for a long time, enduring as long as he could, almost driving the Xiongnu crazy. Even the King of Zhao thought Li Mu feared the Xiongnu and therefore never fought. So the King recalled Li Mu and appointed another general. For more than a year, every time the Xiongnu attacked, the new general ordered the troops out immediately, often suffering setbacks and heavy losses, causing the border area to be unable to function and severely affecting local livelihoods. At this point, the King of Zhao finally woke up and realized that Li Mu's previous role was completely correct. So he invited Li Mu back. Even in this matter, Li Mu held the initiative. At first, he feigned illness and refused to come out until the King agreed to follow all of Li Mu's plans, then he agreed to return. Li Mu returned to the border and still followed the original rules. When the Xiongnu attacked, they gained nothing again, but they always thought Li Mu was cowardly and dared not fight. Li Mu's troops were well-fed and well-treated every day but did not have to fight, so over time they grew restless and were willing to fight the Xiongnu to the death. At this time, Li Mu felt the moment was gradually ripe. He first used small forces to lure the Xiongnu, then sent small troops to invade, commanding the Zhao army to encircle and patrol with left and right wings, defeating them decisively. He revealed that over 100,000 Xiongnu cavalry were caught in a panic. For more than ten years after, the Xiongnu dared not attack again. I think Li Mu's story perfectly illustrates that warfare is not about taking the initiative to attack, but about distinguishing between being active and having the initiative. Taking the initiative to attack does not necessarily mean having the initiative; sometimes you have to take the opponent's punches. So in trading, your buying does not necessarily mean you have the initiative. It may seem active but is actually passive. Therefore, you need to analyze and judge from multiple dimensions to determine the pros and cons of your current trading plan. In other words, you need a complete trading system, be able to see the patterns and intentions of capital, learn to trial and error, and follow the main force. This is the core of winning. Real trading means you can see the overall situation clearly, understand the changes in each K-line (with high probability), and use this as your trading basis to decide whether to do mid-to-long term or short-term trading, so you can make adjustments. Your trading rules and methods must be consistent; you must do what you say, otherwise seeing the overall picture is useless.

Trading is a reflection of a person's lifetime cognition. An excellent trader defines trading as probability based on their thinking; whether profit or loss, it's a competition. Isn't life the same, full of various possibilities? Not accepting life's uncertainties is a sign of immaturity. Let me say it again: it's probability, and none of it is absolute. To achieve stable profits in the market, you need to improve the probabilities within your cognition and master a trading system with a relatively high success rate. This is also a way to amplify your probability of trading success. Some people trade by casually looking at indicators or buying just by seeing a chart pattern. This can only be called a single probability, but probability does not equal guaranteed rise; it just means the likelihood of an increase is greater than a guess. I believe some friends can understand this statement. Some say, "So you say so much, are you the next Tony? Or you're so good, how much money have you made?" I find this quite laughable. If you made a lot of money, who would still be fighting in this trading market? You might as well travel and enjoy life every day. For many ordinary traders, they don't need too much money; earning a few million can change their life path. So, success is not about reaching the mountain top. For birds born unable to fly, when they flap their wings to fly, they have already won. Living well means having a chance. Friends, don't be discouraged; confidence is as valuable as gold. $BTC

I first started trading contracts in March 2021. Before that, I was only trading spot. Because I kept hearing stories about people getting liquidated and going crazy, borrowing money, gambling, and so on, I was always afraid to touch contracts. It was only after knowing a friend on WeChat who made money trading contracts that I became fascinated with them. At first, I used stop-losses and isolated margin, stubbornly holding positions until liquidation. Eventually, I got liquidated so many times that I started doubting life itself. I got cut both in spot and contracts—does this market even let people play? Luckily, I met a big shot in a group who sincerely taught me patiently without charging, answering all my questions, sometimes teaching until midnight. Slowly, I began to gain some insight. Returning to the market, once you understand stop-losses, you realize the market’s uncertainty and that stop-losses protect you. But the problem is frequent stop-losses, followed by rebounds, back and forth—it’s very frustrating. Later, I reviewed charts, monitored the market, and practiced the entire action plan. That is, after doing a lot of preparation, you decide how likely your position will succeed this time. Only when you prepare everything you should can you understand that planning is up to man, success is up to heaven. So you can’t just blame frequent stop-losses on market volatility or the main players shaking the market. Your entry point must be carefully polished. When your buy point is carefully refined and you think it through before buying, you can truly get on track. To be serious, stop-losses also depend on the person. Some people set stop-losses at 10%, some at 5%. It mainly depends on personal tolerance and one’s own trading system. More importantly, it should be addressed from two other dimensions. The first dimension is the buy point, the predecessor of the stop-loss. The problem with frequent stop-losses is not the stop-loss itself but whether your buy point holds a significant advantage—that is, a good start. The second rule: control your hands, follow your entry rules, don’t shout about heavy positions one moment and go all-in the next. Pay attention: those who can truly handle things well have already prepared when motivation strikes. As mentioned earlier, to have a good result, you must first have a good start. That means being cautious at the beginning and cherishing every bullet in your chamber! $BTC $ETH

In this trading market, people are cautious and hesitant before buying, absolutely anxious about market trends after buying, hesitant before selling, and regretful after selling. This is the fear most traders experience. The fear comes from a lack of control. Most people's trades are just because they want to buy or sell, not based on a pre-set plan, but reacting to market fluctuations. Simply put, it's a lack of resolve and also a self-protection mechanism. First, fear and worry create feelings; it has self-awareness and is an unknown entity, so it causes fear. After opening a position, it sharpens your senses and focuses your attention, always ready to fight or flee. This explains why when you buy or sell, you always feel an impulse—you instinctively want to quickly complete the fearful action (closing the position) under those circumstances. What are we really afraid of? Actually, it's the fear of missing out or selling too early because you don't know if your next choice will cause you to miss the opportunity or sell prematurely. This is fear of the unknown, which leads to emotional trading. So how do you solve this problem? It's not about just cheering yourself on, but about maintaining "discipline," "rules," and "practice." This requires daily training. You fear missing out because you don't know whether to buy or when to sell during trading. Your own trading principles must override the market. Write down the buying and selling issues you want to solve on paper and answer them in writing. The more detailed and clear the steps, the better. This is your well-prepared plan that gives you confidence to face market fluctuations. It's simple, but few people do it. People always think they're smart enough to remember everything mentally. Not many persist in reviewing their trades. If you set your trading plan in advance, when facing upward or downward fluctuations, just follow, adjust, and execute the plan. Those who prepare will succeed; those who don't will fail. $BTC

Most traders, upon entering the market, first come into contact with various groups, Weibo KOLs, and live trading; however, after encountering many problems in trading, we find that much of the market analysis does not truly solve trading issues. Often, different analyses contradict each other, with different indicators for long-term and short-term trades. Each analysis has its unique insights, but trying to find the single best method to use and hoping to consistently profit with it is a vain fantasy. More factors contributing to a trader's success lie in seeking self-awareness and attitude to determine trading outcomes. Clear beliefs and discipline are essential qualities of winners. This means learning how to think probabilistically. You don't need to know exactly how to make money in the next step because no one can be certain—anything can happen. The only certainty is market change. This means every advantage and every outcome is a unique experience. You must allow mistakes to happen, not be influenced by past errors, and trade according to rules. In trading, wait for that probabilistic edge to appear, then repeat this process again and again. Learning to accept risk, maintaining discipline, focus, and confidence is very important. In trading, you must fully accept the risk of every trade; this is also the cost of trading. Do not lose discipline, focus, or confidence. If you cannot trade without emotion, then you have not learned to accept risk. Admitting mistakes and incurring losses is very painful and something we definitely want to avoid, but as traders, this is a problem we must face. Traders see only probabilities, so you must establish an objective mindset. Nothing will happen just because you fear it, nor will nothing happen because you don't. The market is objective and neutral. A wrong attitude will cause fear. Remember this: you cannot learn enough knowledge to offset the negative impact caused by fear. In other words, in the face of ongoing uncertainty, every trade will have an uncertain outcome. Therefore, we must learn to fully accept uncertainty. Once fear disappears, we become more rational and stable. Of course, eliminating fear is only half the journey; the other half is developing self-restraint and personal entry discipline to face trading. This is what fitness enthusiasts call building muscle memory and cultivating mechanical, natural habits. The current trend of BTC makes me very puzzled. Without BTC moving down or up, it's very hard to have profitable opportunities in the market!!!😭$BTC

Do you prefer left-side or right-side trading? Today, I'll share my understanding; in trading, the buying direction is divided into two: left-side and right-side, with completely different mindsets. Simply put: left-side means entering a trade before the trend confirmation or reversal is seen, possibly because the valuation has reached a low point or based on a feeling that the decline has bottomed out; right-side is the opposite, entering a trade after the trend confirmation or reversal is observed. Left-side is predictive thinking, right-side is follow-the-trend thinking. So which is better, left-side or right-side? I believe there is no standard answer; each has pros and cons, mainly depending on how one uses them. The advantage of left-side is that if you buy correctly, your cost will be relatively low; if you buy incorrectly, you might buy halfway up the slope, bearing the cost of trial and error. You always want to buy cheap, but if you keep trying to catch the bottom without seeing a significant rebound, it can make you question everything and cause mental anguish and collapse. So I call left-side trading an art. Right-side trading is different: you enter after a signal appears, so this kind of suffering doesn't happen because the right-side signal means the market trend has already changed. However, right-side trading has its cost: when the right-side signal appears, the price is definitely not at the lowest point, so the buying cost is relatively higher. There's also the problem of false right-side signals, which is frustrating. Therefore, the best buying point should be proven by the most objective facts and probabilities, not guessed. In trading, don't always try to buy at the lowest; instead, patiently wait for the market to prove the lowest point is indeed the lowest before considering entering a trade. Even better, don't always think about getting a bargain; true trend leaders or hot spots can offer you an ultra-low or lowest price. So, try to participate in trends or reversals rather than purely left-side thinking, which greatly improves success rates and reduces trial and error costs. Use your advantage of having a small boat (trial capital) that can turn quickly; don't compete with institutions on cost but on patience. Also, don't claim to be value investing to cover up failed bottom-fishing after being trapped. Wrong is wrong; the market has no right or wrong, only what is correct. The big market continues to fluctuate, and altcoins go up and down. $BSB $LAB

Here are some practical tips and profit rules. 1: What type of assets to trade in the crypto space? Answer: Trade crypto contracts. Why? Because even those who truly understand blockchain don’t really know the true value of coins, but contracts at least have been verified and have stable trading volume, so there are contracts (at least they’re not too deceptive), plus contracts have unique leverage. 2: What kind of contracts to buy? Answer: I’ve summarized three strategies. Profit rule 1: stake out one contract, similar to buying trending stocks in A-shares. Find the asset that is about to rally, with volume expansion on the daily K-line and then stabilizing at a high level. Then use a volume contraction pullback to enter with a set stop loss. Leverage should be configured between 5-15X and buy gradually. I’m talking about human nature—those who run at a slight rise or short when it looks high are exploited by us on leading contracts. 3: Short selling. Be cautious with shorting because crypto markets often drop together. If you don’t master shorting skills, better not play that day. Shorting is rule 2, the opposite approach, but remember to be quick—take profits and exit fast, don’t hold too long. These are the three methods; now some precautions: The first is best done after a big drop, closely watch hot assets and repeatedly go long; the second is to always watch BTC—if BTC is stable, repeatedly trading the leader is stable; the third is to avoid shorting unless absolutely necessary. Going from 1 to 100 is a 100x gain, but from 100 to 1 you can only make 99% profit, so try to go long as much as possible. Currently, the trend looks pessimistic, repeatedly testing the bottom. If it breaks through, it will be a major crash, and altcoins won’t be spared. I’m still watching and waiting for a fast drop market. $BTC

When you truly understand the meaning of "waiting" in trading, you will realize that many losses are self-inflicted and have nothing to do with the market. Novice traders are always searching for various shortcuts, while veterans only practice consistent waiting; in fact, some things are destined to be unattainable. Many traders with weak discipline resort to desperate measures, trying to find a trade that doubles immediately after buying, but often when this happens, it's already wrong. That's why I always emphasize "reviewing trades." Reviewing trades helps you better understand your trading style. When things are destined to develop a certain way, what you do can also be done by others—it's just probability. Want to think more clearly? What you think is a doubling opportunity is often just a coincidental point. In trading, the variables in the market are far more numerous than those in everyday life, and opportunities are much more abundant than in life. This means that if you want to find opportunities, there are plenty, but many people forget their past successes. For example, 312, 519, 1011—the timing, environment, and objective conditions at those moments. Since everything develops as destined, especially in this market, think carefully: what you need to learn is the meaning of "waiting." This also reflects real-life experience applied to personal trading awareness. Waiting is not just passive waiting: it involves clear goals, plans, execution... When you truly understand this, the only problem you need to solve is to establish a clear and executable standard, and that’s it. Learning to wait means the person truly understands timing in trading, is realistic, and naturally will experience less anxiety in trading. You will find that trading should actually be done this way—it’s just like that, always has been. The fear and anxiety in your mindset will naturally disappear or lessen. When there’s no market movement, just chat a bit. Wishing all new and old friends lots of profits and big earnings!

Is this a place where you can speak freely? Any friends?