梁老表

X Twitter account: LB192500 Have played 3 times with 100x live trading, and once with 1000x live trading During the sharp drop in April 2025, I did a thousand-fold live trade, but at the time I wasn't interested in connecting to the live trade. However, there was a live transaction record to check, moving from 8,000 yuan to 8 million yuan. In the second half of 2025, I repeated the previous model and experience, going from over 100,000 to 10 million in 20 days, then to 20 million in one month. In 35 days, OKX ranked first overall, losing its rhythm and experiencing a major drawdown. My trading style is inspired by Livermore and is quite aggressive. I am a high P/P player who sometimes experiences large drawdowns but also huge profits. This account is a small-sized weak player with a weak heart and should not follow it

11Following

21.8Kfollowers

Feed

The bottom for Bitcoin in this cycle is $60,000, solid info! Don't be afraid during the pullback! Logic 1: According to current sentiment surveys, basically everyone is stuck in the mindset of the previous traditional cycle. This market will definitely leave most people on the sidelines; it’s not so kind as to let a bunch of people comfortably get on board. Remember the last cycle? Bitcoin dropped to $15,500, and many were waiting for $13,000, $10,000, or even $8,000. Once it breaks below $60,000, a large number of retail investors who missed out will rush to buy the dip. From my observation, about 57% of retail investors (based on a few thousand votes, a market sample, not completely accurate) have put in 10-30% of their positions around $60,000 as their initial entry. Another 10-20% went all in without hesitation, and some are still waiting for $40,000 or $50,000 to go all in, even daring to sell cars and houses if it hits $30,000. Logic 2: In the last cycle, Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to $15,500, a drop of about 77%. The background then was the 2020 COVID outbreak, with the Federal Reserve at zero interest rates plus unlimited QE printing money, and the US government issuing three rounds of universal cash relief subsidies. Trillions of dollars flowed into global capital markets; with the dollar flooding everywhere and nowhere to go, money poured crazily into US tech stocks, Bitcoin, and commodities. Bitcoin surged from $3,800 in March 2020 to an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. That cycle was driven by excess liquidity with nowhere else to go, causing a parabolic rise and a huge bubble, rare in many years. But can the 2024 and 2025 background compare to the last cycle? Ask yourself honestly, is this bubble big? Apart from Bitcoin and SOL, is there any real market? So the bubble isn’t big, and a 50% cut from $120,000 to $60,000 is enough because the bubble itself wasn’t large. You can’t compare this to the parabolic rise of the last cycle. Logic 3: After Bitcoin broke below $84,000, it quickly dropped. At that time, many believed the supercycle bull market wasn’t over, and many long positions were still fighting in the market. After Zhao Changpeng got out of US custody, he gave the market the expectation that there would be no bear market and that the supercycle would continue. Many believed this and dared to buy the dip. The bullish sentiment was still there then. But after breaking $84,000 and $81,000, the long liquidation started, leverage cascades, and a chain of forced liquidations accelerated the drop to around $60,000. Now, dare I ask, is there massive long liquidation in the market? When it drops, don’t you see people hoping for $50,000 again? What long positions? Going long now is like being a dog; there’s no momentum for long liquidation cascades. Logic 4: After Bitcoin reached $60,000, Iran and the US had continuous friction. On the day of the conflict, the price dropped briefly but quickly recovered. Tell me, which candlestick closed before the war news? The chart is the only basis; don’t make up stories. Does the price go higher the more they fight? War definitely scares retail investors into selling, but why did the price instead rise to around $82,500? Did retail investors buy it up? Obviously, the main players were accumulating heavily in a large range. If you can’t see this, what are you doing in crypto? Logic 5: The total Bitcoin supply on exchanges is about 2.7 million coins, which sets the market price for circulating supply and institutional hoarding. Q1 net increase: Strategy weekly increase 24,869 BTC (May 11-17) Major institutional holdings: Goldman Sachs: about $700 million BTC ETF (mainly IBIT, slightly down 10% from last quarter) Wells Fargo: about $250 million IBIT Strategy: total holdings 843,738 BTC Data sources: Public 13F filings and institutional quarterly reports Official disclosures from Strategy, CoinShares, Grayscale Chainalysis / Glassnode institutional on-chain monitoring In Q1, miners and retail sold a large amount of Bitcoin, all absorbed by institutions. Finally, let me ask, if the market is bearish down to $50,000 or $40,000, who is the potential massive seller?

Why did Ethereum's exchange rate keep falling throughout 2022? Ethereum has been weakening, staying within this range for years. What is the overall reason? Let's clarify the conclusion first: ETH crashed sharply in 2022 mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes + a series of industry collapses + repeated uncertainties around The Merge + ecosystem collapse, constituting a systemic bear market. From 2023 to 2026, the long-term trend is weak and sideways at a low level because of tight macro liquidity, ETH's narrative shifting from "growth stock" to "infrastructure," and institutions preferring BTC, causing ETH to consistently underperform the broader market with prolonged range-bound volatility. Why did ETH plunge from $4800 to $880 in 2022? Macro: The Fed aggressively raised interest rates, causing all risk assets to collapse. To curb inflation in 2022, the Fed raised rates aggressively by 75 basis points multiple times, tightening global liquidity. Crypto is a high-risk asset; ETH, seen as a "tech growth stock," was hit first and fell more than BTC. A series of industry black swan events shattered confidence completely: LUNA crash (May): Algorithmic stablecoin de-pegged, DeFi chain liquidations triggered, causing the first major liquidity hemorrhage for ETH. stETH de-pegging (June): The 1:1 peg between Lido-staked ETH (stETH) and ETH broke, triggering panic liquidations on staking chains; ETH briefly fell below $1000. FTX exchange collapse (November): The second-largest exchange went bankrupt, user assets wiped out, market trust collapsed, and ETH bottomed at $880 by year-end. 3) The Merge expectations fluctuated, turning a positive into a "sell-the-news" event. On September 15, the official Merge (PoW to PoS) occurred; the positive news was realized and sold off, ironically becoming a rebound peak, losing support from miners! Currently, macro liquidity has not returned to 2021 levels, and interest rates remain high long-term. The ecosystem is fragmented; Ethereum is no longer the only choice, with Solana as a competitor. Institutional funds are heavily biased: BTC is the favored "golden child," ETH is the backup. Spot ETFs: BTC ETF: approximately $92 billion in scale ETH ETF: approximately $12 billion in scale (7–8 times smaller) Institutional logic: BTC: 21 million fixed supply, simple, censorship-resistant, digital gold; institutions are willing to hold large positions long-term. ETH: continuously upgrading, rules changeable, governance risks, complex ecosystem; institutions treat it as a small allocation, not pushing prices up with heavy positions. Moreover, ecosystem innovation has stalled, lacking new narratives. In 2021, there were three major super narratives: DeFi, NFT, and Metaverse. From 2023 to 2026: no breakout DeFi products, NFT is sluggish, Metaverse cools down, and new hotspots (AI, RWA) have low ETH participation. No new capital is willing to pay a high premium for a "mature infrastructure."