FreedmanCrypto[互关版]

Got home in the afternoon and flopped onto the sofa, casually opened my account for a quick look. The screen was full of red. BTC $75,793, down 1% in 24 hours. ETH $2,078, SUI $1.00 down 2.6%, mainstream coins are mostly in the red. But the biggest surprise today was $DOGE. The whole market is falling, yet DOGE is green. A 1.2% increase isn’t much, but in today’s environment, it’s like seeing a flower suddenly bloom in a wasteland, impossible not to take a second look. Some say DOGE is a barometer of retail investor sentiment. Retail investors are still buying DOGE, which means market sentiment hasn’t completely collapsed. But if BTC keeps falling, this flower won’t last long. Also saw some news: OKX’s XLayer officially launched Exchange OS, integrating Glassnode’s on-chain data. Developers can directly build applications using exchange-level infrastructure. I think this direction is pretty right—no need to compete with Solana on speed, just open up the core capabilities. Patience is most tested when the market is cold. How’s your account today? 👇

Lying in bed tonight, I checked the market and almost thought I was seeing things—today actually turned green across the board? BTC is at 73,596. Although it's still far from 80,000, at least it has stopped the continuous decline. ETH bounced back to 2,029, SOL touched 82.84, and most major coins are gently rebounding between 1.5% and 2.3%. The brightest spot is $TRUMP, which rose 5.5% in 24 hours, currently priced at $1.95, leading the entire market. The whole day was spent under the shadow of a slow decline, with 7 out of 15 articles talking about ETF outflows, institutional withdrawals, and miners being squeezed by AI. But by evening, the market suddenly gave a sweet surprise. PEPE rose 3.3%, BONK up 3.2%, even "old guard coins" like ADA and SUI followed suit. But honestly, a one-day rebound doesn’t prove much. BTC ETFs have had net outflows for several consecutive days, with total scale nearing 2.8 billion. JPMorgan is also warning of a "cooling crypto market." This short-term bounce looks more like an oversold rebound; the real direction depends on whether 73,000 can hold next week. TRUMP is quite interesting; every time the market rebounds, it charges ahead. It feels like it has become a thermometer for market sentiment. It’s the strongest during rebounds and the worst during crashes—a truly high-volatility asset. One last look before sleep, today marks a decent closing for the week. Is your portfolio in the red or green today? Did you cut losses at the bottom only to watch it bounce back? #BTC #TRUMP #CryptoMarket

Finally made it to the weekend on Friday night, brewed a cup of tea and was ready to relax, but a message on Twitter immediately made me sit up. ICE's CEO Jeffrey Sprecher publicly said: Hyperliquid is bigger than NASDAQ. Who is ICE? The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. The person saying this is not some random KOL, but the one who controls the world's largest exchange group. He also revealed that he has already met the founding team of Hyperliquid. This is not a pump signal, this is Wall Street admitting defeat. On the same night, Bitwise also released a report saying that demand for the HYPE ETF is surging, and investors' appetite for exposure to Hyperliquid is growing stronger. The ETF is already arranged, and institutional funding channels are open. Today $HYPE rose nearly 9%, while the whole market is falling. BTC is stuck at 72k, SUI dropped 2.5%, AVAX fell nearly 2%, but it alone is pushing up against the trend. Money is voting with its feet. The CEO of a DeFi chain was personally praised by the NYSE boss, the founder was invited for a meeting, and the ETF product is already listed—this signal is more reliable than any technical indicator. Wall Street never goes against the trend; they only figure out how to get a piece of the pie. Of course, the more you should stay calm at times like this. Institutional entry does not mean retail investors will definitely win; they are buying early low-priced chips, and what you chase might be the price they are ready to sell at. Friday night’s market liquidity is thin, and volatility will be amplified. Do you think Hyperliquid can really become the next-level infrastructure, or is this just an institutional bubble? How do you see the weekend market? $HYPE

Habitually checked my account before bed, BTC is at 72,946, breaking 73,000 again. Saw a striking data point today: US spot BTC ETF funds have had net outflows for several consecutive days, with a total scale of $2.8 billion, setting the longest continuous outflow record. JPMorgan analysts put it bluntly—this is a "cooling" signal. What does cooling mean? It's not panic selling, but institutions reassessing their risk exposure. Cathie Wood is still painting a $750,000 picture for 2030, but real money is quietly leaving. On one side, the most famous bulls are shouting to the skies, on the other, ETF funds are flowing out daily. Who do you trust? Altcoins are even worse. SUI has dropped below ninety cents, and the entire sector is basically bleeding. But today there’s an outlier—$HYPE rose 8% against the trend, currently priced at $61.7, standing out sharply in a sea of red. Hyperliquid has been active recently, with the HIP-4 proposal and a surge in on-chain activity; it seems funds have found a new narrative outlet. ETH is still hovering near the 2,000 mark, holding this position for almost a week now, increasingly like walking a tightrope. If it breaks down, the next support level might be around 1,800. What’s most tormenting about this market now isn’t the crash, but the uncertainty about direction. Every morning I wake up wondering: will it continue to drift down or suddenly shoot up with a big green candle? Are you holding positions or staying in cash tonight? Is there anyone like me who must check one last time before sleeping to feel at ease?

Lying on the couch scrolling through my phone, BTC is stuck around 73,000, completely still, the whole market seems frozen, and altcoins occasionally show some green but without much movement. Just as I was about to close the app, a piece of news made me sit up straight—someone filed a lawsuit in a US court demanding legal ownership of $293 billion worth of dormant Bitcoin, even though they don't have the private keys. No mistake, $293 billion. This person claims to have the right to those long-unmoved BTC through some "legal means," including huge holdings from early miners. It sounds like a fairy tale, but they are really pursuing legal procedures. The truly interesting part is: if the court accepts and rules on this, it challenges the fundamental logic of the crypto world—private keys equal ownership. Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet, coins forgotten by early miners, various "dead coins" with lost keys, the total is staggering. According to on-chain data estimates, the amount of long-unmoved BTC may exceed 3 million. If the law can overturn the private key logic, then what difference is there between Bitcoin and a bank account? This is not an ordinary lawsuit; it is a direct clash between the traditional legal system and blockchain beliefs. Of course, the chances of winning are currently very low, but it signals one thing: when crypto assets reach a certain scale, traditional world rules will definitely try to intervene. Do you think the law can affect private keys?

Just finished showering and lying in bed checking the market, a push notification popped up and I almost threw my phone—$6.3 billion worth of BTC options expire today. What does this number mean? It's roughly the largest expiration in the past few months. BTC is hovering around 73,000 now, neither high nor low, but this kind of sideways movement before options expiration is actually the most unsettling. Many say options expiration is the "house's harvest day." A large number of call options have strike prices concentrated between 75,000 and 80,000, which the current price clearly can't reach, meaning many calls will expire worthless. Market makers who previously bought spot to hedge delta might sell off directly after expiration. So the logic you see is: BTC has slowly climbed back from below 73,000 reported by Bloomberg to 73,500 in the past two days, but can this rebound last? The real test of support will come after the $6.3 billion options are settled. In other words, don't rush to judge the direction; first, see how the funds flow after tonight's expiration. The real choice might come over the weekend. Tonight, are you watching from the sidelines or have you already entered the market?

After work, I went out for a walk to relax. My phone vibrated, and I habitually opened the market data. BTC has been grinding around 73,500 again. It's been a day, no major fluctuations, but it hasn't rallyed either. ETH is holding the 2000 mark, SOL is around 82, and the whole market is like stagnant water. After watching the market all day, the worst part wasn't the crash, but the feeling of a dull knife cutting through the flesh of a shadowy decline. In the morning it was still at 73,500, and in the afternoon it was still 73,500, but if you look at the knockoff sectors, they're all glowing green—the kind of green you're stuck in. SUI fell to 0.91, PEPE hovered at the bottom, and even the meme within TRUMP shrank to around 1.9. What truly worries me isn't the price, but market sentiment. ETFs have seen net outflows for several consecutive days, with institutions like Sequans clearing out and fleeing, and miners' profits being squeezed by AI computing power are getting thinner and thinner. Retail investors are holding the line, institutions are pulling out—I'm very familiar with this scenario. But you want to ask if I've left? No. It's not because of faith, but because in this slow-dragging market, it's easiest to get hit from both sides. If you sell, a big bullish candlestick will be added the next day; If you don't sell, it will continue to wear you down until you collapse. To be honest, this kind of market is the most testing of human nature. If you plunge, you can make a decisive move; if prices surge, you drink the soup along. Only this sideways decline is worn down daily by testing your patience and confidence. Are you still watching the market tonight? Or should I just close the app and do something else?

On the way home from work, I queued up to buy coffee and casually checked the US stock market. The Nasdaq and S&P hit new all-time highs again. Then I switched to BTC, $73,682, almost standing still. ETH is the same, hovering around 2010, and a 1.2% rise is considered "good performance." This scene is actually quite surreal. US stocks are soaring, oil prices are falling, geopolitical tensions are easing, which should be the best scenario for risk assets. But BTC is completely disconnected; funds just aren’t flowing into crypto. I saw CryptoQuant released some data today—long-term BTC holders on-chain are continuously selling, but new entrants can’t absorb this selling pressure at all. On the surface, the price hasn’t dropped much, but underneath, old money is offloading while new money is hesitating. To put it simply, the problem isn’t with BTC itself, but where the money is going. Institutional money now prefers AI, tech stocks, and US stocks. BlackRock and Fidelity’s ETF products are available, but the inflows can’t compare to last year’s bull market. Money is limited; if you choose A, you can’t afford B. In the short term, watch if the 73,000 level can hold. If it holds, there’s still a chance. But if US stocks keep rising and crypto keeps lagging, then a more awkward question may arise: in this cycle, does crypto still have an independent rally? When do you think the funds will come back? Or is this time really different?

During the afternoon tea break, I scrolled through my phone and a research report title from Fidelity immediately caught my attention—"Bitcoin miners are facing comprehensive pressure from AI." Looking closely at the content, the core point is very striking: BTC's total network hashrate has plateaued at a high level, and miners' profit margins have been squeezed to a cyclical low. It's not because the coin price is weak, but because the mining business model itself is being rewritten. AI data centers' demand for power and computing resources is pulling resources away from BTC mining farms. Leading mining companies like Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms have quietly started shifting their business lines toward AI infrastructure. Previously, miners' fate was tied to BTC halving cycles, but now they've found a new profit outlet—selling computing power to AI companies, which offers more stable returns than mining coins. This trend is actually worth pondering. Spot ETFs have amplified BTC's value as a store of value, but the role of miners is being diluted. When miners start becoming AI computing power suppliers, who will ultimately guarantee the security of the BTC network in the long run? Today, the market gave some respect, with mainstream coins rising broadly, and $HYPE pulling up 7% intraday as the brightest star. But the short-term improvement in market sentiment can't hide the fact that the industry's underlying structure is changing. Do you think miners shifting to AI is going with the flow, or diverging from crypto's original intent? Let's discuss in the comments👇 $BTC $ETH #BTC #AI #BitcoinMining

In the afternoon, I brewed a cup of coffee and was scrolling through my phone when I saw a message that almost made me spit out my coffee — French chip company Sequans, which spent tens of millions of dollars buying BTC last year and has been in the crypto space for less than a year, just announced a full exit and ran away today. This company only announced last year with much fanfare that it would add Bitcoin to its balance sheet, trying to emulate MicroStrategy's "corporate holding" strategy. So what happened? They bought at a mid-level price, held for less than a year, then cut their losses and quit. I calculated that their batch of coins probably cost much more than the current price of 73,000, basically selling at a loss. This is no longer an isolated case. BTC spot ETFs have seen consecutive days of net outflows, with institutions quietly retreating. On one hand, Cathie Wood is shouting that BTC will reach $750,000 by 2030, while on the other hand, real money is fleeing. Retail investors read the news and feel their faith renewed, but the smart money is exiting — this picture looks so contradictory. Fidelity just released a report saying Bitcoin miners are facing pressure from AI computing power, and network security is entering a new phase. Simply put, mining is becoming less and less profitable, with computing power shifting towards AI. Even miners are wavering, so can you still expect new funds to come in? Right now, the whole market is like a frog being boiled slowly. The 73,000 level is stuck in limbo, with neither bulls nor bears daring to make big moves. But I tend to interpret it as: retail investors are holding on, institutions are running, and time is not on the side of coin holders. How long do you think this trend of institutional retreat will continue? Or is it already near the bottom?

After returning to my desk from lunch break, I habitually checked the BTC market price—$73,468. Honestly, seeing this number chills me every time. It’s dropped 5.5% over five days, sliding down steadily from last week’s high with no decent rebound at all. What’s worse is that funds are continuously flowing out of the spot ETF—institutions are pulling out. A few days ago, the news about SpaceX holding 18,712 BTC was all over the place. Some saw it as bullish, thinking big money was entering the market. But if you look at it from another angle, the real story now is the net outflow from ETFs. On one side, there’s the "institutional positioning" in the news; on the other, there’s real money leaving. Which one is more reliable? Right now, BTC is stuck in a rather awkward spot. Around 73,000 is a support level watched by many technical traders. If it doesn’t hold, the next support might be near 70,000. If it does hold, there could be a small short-term rebound, but the trend has already shifted from strong to weak consolidation. ETH is a bit interesting—it rose slightly by 1.57% today to 2,010. SOL is hovering around 81. The market is waiting for direction. When BTC fell, altcoins didn’t follow much, indicating that funds aren’t fleeing in panic but are more in a wait-and-see mode. But waiting itself is a kind of unease. Big money isn’t rushing to bottom-fish, and retail investors don’t dare to add positions lightly. This deadlock has to be broken eventually. Do you think 73,000 can hold?