Phyrex.Ni
Phyrex.Ni
No extravagance, no waste
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In April, the US CPI and PPI data were both higher than the previous values and expectations, but the market had a better understanding of the PCE data for April. Although the annual rate data released today were also higher than the previous values, they were within the expected range. However, compared to the increases in CPI and PPI, the rise in PCE data was not significant.
Even the monthly rate data were lower than the previous values. Both the core PCE monthly rate and the PCE monthly rate were lower than before. This is mainly because the weighting of PCE differs from CPI; shocks like energy, gasoline, and rent are more easily amplified in CPI.
CPI reflects out-of-pocket prices for urban consumers, while PCE covers total personal consumption expenditures, with weights adjusted according to changes in consumption behavior.
Simply put, if oil prices rise, CPI directly shows "gasoline prices rose a lot," while PCE also considers whether consumers have changed their actual consumption patterns, such as driving less, consuming less, or switching to cheaper alternatives. Therefore, the same price shock may have different weights in PCE.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve focuses most on the core PCE data, which is still acceptable, having only risen 0.1% compared to March. The market should temporarily breathe a slight sigh of relief.
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Phyrex.Ni
Yesterday, I just finished looking at the CPI data, and today the PPI data has come out. Of course, compared to the much more closely watched CPI, the PPI receives much less attention. But it's important to know that in the Fed's most important PCE data, both CPI and PPI are key leading indicators.
Today's PPI data also blew past expectations: the previous value was 4.3%, the market forecast was 4.9%, and the released data is 6%. The core PPI showed the same trend.
If CPI is the inflation indicator that the market looks at first, then PPI is the indicator of production costs and some service prices, while PCE is the core indicator the Fed uses for policy decisions.
So after reviewing the CPI, looking at the PPI gives a rough idea of the monthly PCE trend. And for the Fed right now, the PCE is one of the main references for deciding whether to cut interest rates or not.
"Obtaining a Dubai zero-tax status to avoid CRS" is purely misleading. Dubai has no capital gains tax, but CRS looks at "tax residency status," not whether you have an Emirates ID. If you are still a Chinese tax resident (owning property and/or having household registration), simply having a UAE student ID cannot change the CRS reporting target to UAE; it will still be reported to China.
财经真相
Let me give Chinese financial refugees a way out!
If you want to continue trading US stocks, you need an overseas ID and bank card, and the cost can't be too high. What to do?
Answer: Dubai English classes
Apply for a one-year formal English school in Dubai, and you can get a Dubai ID. With the ID, you unlock the following benefits:
Open a US Interactive Brokers account
Open a Dubai bank card
Obtain a tax-free Dubai status to avoid CRS
Learn English
Costs are lower than Hong Kong and Singapore (tuition and accommodation $10,000/year)
The peace talks between the US and Iran are still going through twists and turns, but judging from the price of WTI, the market now believes that the US will definitely handle the Strait of Hormuz issue. Not only WTI, even Brent is falling sharply. Currently, the price difference between Brent and WTI is less than $3.5. Oil prices represent market confidence, and lowering oil prices can help reduce global inflation.
Moreover, according to data from forecasting websites, the market's probability of a US economic recession this year has significantly decreased. Investors have also started to expect that the end of the US-Iran war will ease US inflation and pull the US out of recession fears. After all, in reality, the US has indeed become tougher after the ceasefire.
The current strategy remains to continue shorting WTI at high levels, which is straightforward. At this stage, watch for $85 first, then see if there will be further fluctuations. I think it’s not easy to resolve the Iran issue all at once, but if the Strait of Hormuz is dealt with separately first, it should be much simpler. Solving the Hormuz issue is equivalent to solving the US’s biggest problem.
Iran itself is not much of an issue.
Looking back at Bitcoin data, recently the bearish sentiment on $BTC among friends continues to rise. The US stock market remains relatively strong. I estimate that Bitcoin will only catch its breath after the Hormuz or Iran issue is resolved. But indeed, data shows BTC investors are not panicking; currently, the main participants in turnover are short-term investors.
Of course, due to liquidity reasons, short-term investors are the main drivers of price volatility, but as long as most users are not involved in turnover and there are no new negative factors from the US, Bitcoin’s price can remain relatively stable.
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Phyrex.Ni
This should be the third time. After the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, this is the third time the US and Iran have actually sat down to discuss a ceasefire agreement, and both sides believe there has been progress. However, it is also the third time that the deal fell apart at the most critical moment. This time it seems to be about the issue of enriched uranium, but judging from Trump's posts, Iran still has not given up control over the Strait of Hormuz, which is likely one of the reasons the agreement was not reached.
Today is the first day back after the holiday, and both the Nasdaq and S&P broke through record highs again during the session. Although there was some pullback at the close due to Trump's remarks, the US stock market's performance is really strong, especially with the Nasdaq breaking through 30,000 points, rising more than 30% in less than two months. Dollar-cost averaging into the index has been a great return.
The big surge in AI has made many investors less interested in the US-Iran geopolitical conflict, but if the conflict remains unresolved and oil prices stay above $90, it will have a significant impact on US inflation. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will tighten further, which is a risk that cannot be ignored, especially for bitcoin:native.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, although the recent two-day decline was influenced by the renewed US-Iran conflict, no issues with investor sentiment have been found. The turnover rate remains low, and most investors continue to stay relaxed. As I have always said, although bitcoin:native's gains can't keep up with the US stock market, as long as the US stock market maintains a good upward trend, Bitcoin won't do too badly.
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Unity of knowledge and action, continue shorting WTI, currently targeting $85 first, then we'll see.
The US and Iran may not succeed in peace talks all at once, so oil prices might still fluctuate, but the market already believes the Strait of Hormuz is an issue that must be resolved.
In the long term, prices could drop to $75 or even lower, but it will likely take some time.
This is the fourth wave of shorting.
Continue shorting WTI at high levels, with additional positions added at $94.5.
The current average price for the fourth round is $92.68, with a liquidation price of $121.7.
Current profit and loss: -10%.
Phyrex.Ni
I don't think I have any talent for trading, nor do I consider myself a professional trader, but I have my own understanding of trading, especially when it comes to assets that can be judged through macro and economic analysis. I believe this kind of money can be earned by most people.
Yesterday, I said I felt Iran wouldn't sign the contract smoothly because the announced agreement was unilateral from the US side, and Iran hadn't clearly expressed its stance. So I liquidated half of my position. Just after finishing that, I saw Iran express dissatisfaction, stating that the Strait of Hormuz should still be under Iran's jurisdiction.
Before Trump's tone tightened, I chose to liquidate the other half of my WTI short position at a price of $90. But I have always believed that high oil prices harm not only the US but the entire world. Therefore, I suggest continuing to short WTI on rallies. Personally, I add to my position every time the price rises by $0.5.
Currently, I haven't bought at $94; my average price is $92.2. If the price continues to rise, I will keep buying. If it can't rise further, the position I hold now is about half of what I had before, which means I've made a $2 spread, roughly an 18% extra return.
Moreover, if this really ends this time, I won't be looking at $90 but around $85.
This money was earned through understanding macroeconomics. You don't need to understand candlestick charts, complex logic, or watch the market nonstop all day. Just allow enough margin for error and have a basic understanding of the current international situation. I don't know about others, but I know that both @Cato_KT and @DL_W59 have made money this way.
They both explained the logic in detail. Interested friends can check it out. Overall, this kind of money is made through cognition; it's not complicated and doesn't take long—just about a month. More importantly, you can calculate a reasonable liquidation price. Of course, this situation doesn't happen often, but when it does, you should seize the opportunity.
This should be the third time. After the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, this is the third time the US and Iran have actually sat down to discuss a ceasefire agreement, and both sides believe there has been progress. However, it is also the third time that the deal fell apart at the most critical moment. This time it seems to be about the issue of enriched uranium, but judging from Trump's posts, Iran still has not given up control over the Strait of Hormuz, which is likely one of the reasons the agreement was not reached.
Today is the first day back after the holiday, and both the Nasdaq and S&P broke through record highs again during the session. Although there was some pullback at the close due to Trump's remarks, the US stock market's performance is really strong, especially with the Nasdaq breaking through 30,000 points, rising more than 30% in less than two months. Dollar-cost averaging into the index has been a great return.
The big surge in AI has made many investors less interested in the US-Iran geopolitical conflict, but if the conflict remains unresolved and oil prices stay above $90, it will have a significant impact on US inflation. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will tighten further, which is a risk that cannot be ignored, especially for bitcoin:native.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, although the recent two-day decline was influenced by the renewed US-Iran conflict, no issues with investor sentiment have been found. The turnover rate remains low, and most investors continue to stay relaxed. As I have always said, although bitcoin:native's gains can't keep up with the US stock market, as long as the US stock market maintains a good upward trend, Bitcoin won't do too badly.
#Bitget comes as VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
This is the fourth wave of WTI I've traded. The first three waves went quite well, mainly due to my understanding of the US and Iran. This trade is also a very standard macro trade, judging WTI's trend based on macro trend expectations. The biggest advantage of this type of trade is its high fault tolerance; you only need to correctly predict the direction and market price expectations, and the win rate is basically very high.
The only thing to watch out for is that if you're trading on an exchange, you need to consider funding rates, whereas if you're trading through a broker, it's about capital movement. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages. The exchange's advantage is leverage and contracts, while the broker's advantage is lower costs.
Exchanges are more suitable for short-term explosive trades, for example, once the US and Iran trends are confirmed, short or long positions can be taken accordingly, usually finishing within two or three days. For long-term positions, brokers are more suitable.
However, now that Binance has adjusted the funding rates, the funding rates for CLUSDT have been low in the past week, making mid-to-long-term holding acceptable.
DC大于C
On Saturday, after I closed my #WTI short position (around 89.9), I was still discussing with Ni Da whether it was a bit too early #MacroAnalysis
Because at that time, based on the US-Iran situation, if talks were to happen in early June and the Strait of Hormuz would be open, the price could quickly drop to 85 or even lower, but it turned out I was overthinking.
The talks hadn’t even started and disagreements already occurred over the weekend, so I kept waiting.
Then just now, a news piece said, "Even if Iran and the US reach an agreement through negotiations, it doesn’t mean the conflict is over, nor does it mean the US-Iran relationship will no longer face challenges—the US’s actions themselves indicate 'we are far from the end.'" Aziz also emphasized that Iran after the war on February 28 is "completely different" from before.
They pulled the oil price from 92 to above 94, wow, is the new high-level shorting opportunity I’ve been waiting for coming??
I just feel unsure if it will go above 95 or even higher. Previously, I opened a short position at 99, then it went up to 110, and I felt it was too early then.
Anyway, this time I haven’t opened a position yet, hoping for a "better" price.
Trading oil prices on #Binance only involves one fee. Compared to early May, the fee rate has been adjusted lower. When news is flying everywhere and oil prices fluctuate violently, the fee rate might be above 0.1, but normally it’s fine. If not, you can try mid-term low leverage, which might be better.
For those who can’t trade oil prices, you can try trading Bitcoin. To put it simply, the high of oil prices is the low of Bitcoin, meaning geopolitical factors affect oil prices; when oil prices rise, it’s unfavorable for risk markets, so Bitcoin falls. When geopolitics ease and oil prices fall, it’s good for Bitcoin.
But I recently closed my long Bitcoin positions on dips. Although the above logic is roughly correct, be cautious of a US stock market pullback. Don’t be fooled by the current continuous new highs in US stocks; June’s inflation data will definitely look very bad, plus US stocks are already very high. The economy is still under high inflation pressure.
And don’t get hung up on why Bitcoin doesn’t follow US stocks down or up—US stocks have excellent liquidity; Bitcoin isn’t nurtured by a "mother."
Bitcoin has now moved from the previous 65-74 range to the 74-82 range (the position isn’t absolute; don’t just look at price, but event trends and sentiment) in a consolidation.
If Bitcoin approaches around 74 and oil prices continue to rise while Bitcoin keeps falling, buying Bitcoin on dips should be done rationally and cautiously.
Because the trend is not favorable. The cost-performance ratio isn’t that high.
The topic of prediction has been getting increasingly popular recently, and I am very optimistic about this field. I have previously shared my expectations for @NeoSoulAI. Honestly, I was completely in the dark about this event at first, not knowing what it was about at all. The editor responsible for X should be given another chicken leg (a humorous way to say they need to improve).
When organizing an event, the event itself should be explained more clearly so that participants know exactly what it is about and are interested in joining, rather than piling up a bunch of technical terms and playing a "guessing" game.
What I roughly understand now is that it’s a free Mint event, minting an identity on the 0G chain in the form of an NFT. The holders of this NFT can gain some rights, including possible future airdrops, and this identity can also be used later in NeoSou’s prediction market.
That’s about it. I hope the next event can explain things more clearly.
NeoSoul
most protocols treat u like farmers
we treat u like an evolving node
neosoul x @0g_labs credentials just dropped
50k total supply but epoch 1 only gets a fraction
20k orbit spots for the early ones
4k vector spots if u actually do shit
140 zenith upgrades for the absolute brains
mint opens tmrw 10am utc
tell us ur boldest market prediction to get on the radar
